Friday, January 16, 2009

La perfecta tormenta política

En términos económicos y también políticos el año que despierta rebalsando de tiempo se avizora difícil, aunque los avestruces del oficialismo se empeñen en negarlo. La economía mundial entró de lleno a una recesión. El producto interno bruto de los países desarrollados, encabezados por Estados Unidos, se reducirá en -0.5 por ciento en el 2009. Achichiu caray, duele la caída. Una frase de efecto para estos momentos solía ser: si a los ricos les da una gripe al resto del mundo le da una pulmonía, pero, ¿qué ocurre cuando a los países industrializados les da una pulmonía? Esta es una respuesta que aún no podemos dar, la última vez que ocurrió este fenómeno recesivo fue los locos años treinta. Las economías emergentes como China, India, Brasil y Rusia, otrora vedettes de escenario internacional, también desaceleran sus ritmos de crecimiento económico en el año que recién da las caras. Por el vecindario, las cosas tampoco parecen muy alentadoras. Según la CEPAL, en el 2009, la economía de la región con suerte llegara a un crecimiento de 1.9 por ciento. Esto de hecho ya lo hemos sentido los primeros días de enero, Brasil nos comunico, lacónicamente, que dejaría de importar gas natural boliviano en un 30 por ciento. Después del pataleo del gobierno, presentado como un gran triunfo diplomático, la reducción será del 20 por ciento hasta mayo, y después veremos dicen los de Petrobrás. Con victorias como estas estamos perdidos, diría el viejo Pirri. El exceso de oferta nacional de gas se intentará colocarlo en el mercado argentino. Esta reducción en cantidades agarró de sorpresa a todos, sobre todo al gobierno, y se explica por la desaceleración de la economía brasileña y cambios en su matriz energética. Los vecinos usaran más hidroelectricidad, San Pedro hizo su parte y sus represas están llenas de agua. Además, otros productos derivados del petrolero, como diesel, están mas baratos que el gas boliviano. Prevalecen los criterios económicos, los discurso de hermandad son substituidos por un frío pragmatismo. Una vez más predomina la escuela realista de la relaciones internacionales, que sostiene que los países tienen intereses y no amigos. Pero lo más complejo recién se avecina, entre abril y mayo se viene el reajuste hacia abajo de los precios del gas natural, con cierto retraso por las formulas del contrato, pero en algunos meses estos precios reflejaran la caída del petróleo a menos de 40 dólares. Así que en algunos meses no sólo venderemos menos energético, sino que este también será mas barato. Las arcas publicas del país temblarán aunque los compromisos sociales y las sobre todo, las promesas continuaran . Las exportaciones mineral también se reducen desde el ultimo bimestre del año pasado, y ciertamente. las remesas internacionales van por el mismo camino. En suma, están dadas todas las condiciones para una tormenta económica financiera perfecta. En cuanto eso, en la tierra de la revolución hay el convencimiento de que se matará a la crisis con la indiferencia, a peores enemigos a derrotado el gobierno. Se apuesta al blindaje político y discursivo en un año repleto de elecciones. Es la perfecta tormenta política.

52 comments:

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Tendrían que empezar de una vez con la devaluación de la moneda nacional, en su tiempo sirvió para combatir la inflación, ahora sería util para que incentivar el crecimiento, empezar poco a poco a devaluar la moneda, eso en cuanto a politicas monetarias, en cuanto a politicas fiscales deberian dejar las cosas al mercado y no gastar lo poco que le queda al estado en fabriquitas estatales de dudoso exito y rentabilidad y cuantiosas inversiones, sabemos que la demanda interna es reducida y escasa, sabemos de la corrupcion de los funcionarios estatales, sabemos de lo costoso y complicado de la administracion de las empresas, sabemos de la pesima administracion estatal, es el caso de ENTEL, YPFB, porque que los del gobierno creen que va ser diferente ahora, falta saber si habra dinero para la renta dignidad o el bono juancito pinto, estan entre la pared y la espada si sacan money de las reservas simplemente aumentara la desconfianza y el riesgo de una hiperinflacion sera inminente, deber de recortar como carniceros ciertos programas como el de evo cumple por ejemplo, luchar contra el contrabando, abrir mercados, restablecer relaciones con E.E.U.U., hacer ver que se respetará la sagrada propiedad privada y que eso de la C.P.E. erá puro cuento.

alvaro said...

señor chavez podria por favor ayudarme con algunas dudas

que resulta mejor recibir desde españa euros o dolares y cual es la empresa mas segura para las remesas hacia bolivia, ademas de que cobraria menos y en que banco es mejor el interes para depositalo y si en dolares o bolivianos

le agradecere mucho su ayuda

saludos

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Este es lo que esta pasando en Bolivia...bye bye democracia, Viva el Rey/Inca Evo

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No es un problema diferencias ideológicas, sino de coeficiente intelectual

Con frecuencia y con mucha razón la gente me dice que debemos pasar de la problemática a la solucionática. Del diagnóstico o de la  crítica ...