Friday, August 22, 2008

Se viene una crisis?

En cuanto gobierno y oposición regional se agarran de las mechas, en un "Catch-As-Catch-Can" a cuatro caídas, vulgo agárrate como puedas, la economía internacional da señales muy preocupantes. Algunos indicadores revelan que, aparentemente, el período de vacas gordas está llegando a su final. Presentemos algunos hechos estilizados.

La crisis financiera de Estados Unidos parece no tener fin, las pérdidas en créditos no recuperados ya llega a la astronómica cifra de 2 billones de dólares. Dinero suficiente como para resolver los temas de pobreza de varios países en el mundo. Los mercados de valores internacionales están al borde del ataque de nervios. Desde inicios del 2008, las bolsas de Nueva York, Tokio, Shangai, Madrid o San Pablo han registrado una enorme volatilidad en la cotización de acciones. En promedio los equity prices se han reducido en un 40 por ciento de sus niveles de pico.

Según datos oficiales, la recesión en la economía estadounidense comenzó en el primer trimestre del 2008. En este año, el crecimiento del producto gringo con suerte llegará al 1 por ciento. Esta caída del producto va a ser una de las más duras de las últimas décadas. Además todo indica, que el resto de economías del mundo no van a poder desconectarse de la recesión gringa y sus desajustes financieros. De hecho, las doce mayores economías del mundo van camino a un aterrizaje duro. Las economías que se conocen como G7 están entrando en recesión. En el año que transcurre, la zona europea y Japón registrarán crecimiento de menos 1 por ciento. La recuperación del dólar frente al Euro sería otro síntoma de pérdida de vigor económico de la Comunidad Europea. La gran interrogante es China e India, se especula que después de las Olimpiadas, los chinos jalarán el freno de mano a su economía, que está sobre calentada y así, se profundizará la desaceleración del tren económico internacional.

La recesión internacional ya sería responsable por la caída de los precios del petróleo y ciertas commodities. Se estima que la baja puede ser de más del 30% de la reciente burbuja en la que estaban. La frenada en seco de la economías desarrolladas, al igual que de los años 70, está acompañada de aumentos de precios, todo indica que estamos frente a un fenómeno conocido como estanflación (recesión con inflación). Ahora lo que es más delicado, la recesión en el norte y en los otros países desarrollados podría tener el formato de U, lo que significa que sus economías estarían en el suelo por unos 12 o 18 meses. Los anteriores hechos estilizados provienen de varias fuentes, pero sobre todo de las proyecciones que realiza Nouriel Roubini, profesor de Economía Internacional de la Universidad de Nueva York.

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